Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -350 FRES +250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +14 | 174 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -12.9 (+1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+34.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -8.9 (+5.1) | 141.1 (+32.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -11.2 (+2.8) | 141.6 (+32.4) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -11.4 (+2.6) | 141.6 (+32.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -11.7 (+2.3) | 141.5 (+32.5) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 22, 2026 | UNM 83 – 74 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 6-12 |
| Home | 15-5 | 7-7 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 2-1 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.2 | 63.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.6 | 66.0 |
| Massey | 10.3 (#46) | 0.9 (#154) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.62 (#55) | -0.10 (#181) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#55) | 0.09 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.570 (#57) | 0.491 (#196) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 42.1% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 28.6% |
| REB / G | 36.9 | 30.2 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 7.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.00 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 28.3% | 24.6% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 18.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.8% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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