Betting Lines
| Spread | UNM -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Over |
| Money | UNM -1450 FRES +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNM +9 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | UNM -14.0 (-5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.0 (+16.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNM -16.4 (-7.4) | 140.2 (+16.8) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNM -13.0 (-4.0) | 138.4 (+18.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNM -12.8 (-3.8) | 138.0 (+19.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNM -13.5 (-4.5) | 140.5 (+16.5) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 22, 2026 | UNM 80 – 78 FRES |
| Jan 20, 2025 | UNM 95 – 67 FRES |
| Jan 1, 2025 | UNM 103 – 89 FRES |
| Mar 7, 2024 | UNM 79 – 58 FRES |
| Mar 1, 2023 | UNM 94 – 80 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 7-13 |
| Home | 17-3 | 10-7 |
| Away | 7-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.6 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 12.8 (#42) | 2.1 (#140) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#43) | 0.10 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#43) | 0.36 (#143) |
| RPI | 0.604 (#36) | 0.507 (#160) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNM | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.4% | 50.3% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 27.1% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 51.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.2% | 20.1% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 70.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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