Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Over |
| Money | GTWN -240 DEP +200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +5 | 141 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -8.4 (-13.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-1.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -7.0 (-12.0) | 139.2 (+1.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -7.8 (-12.8) | 141.9 (-0.9) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -8.1 (-13.1) | 140.8 (+0.2) | 82% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -7.3 (-12.3) | 141.0 (-0.0) | 81% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GTWN 63 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 29, 2026 | GTWN 70 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DEP 56 – 50 GTWN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | DEP 71 – 67 GTWN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DEP 83 – 77 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#69) | 3.6 (#107) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.35 (#71) | -0.22 (#193) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.61 (#77) | 0.06 (#166) |
| RPI | 0.555 (#77) | 0.477 (#214) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 37.9 | 37.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 54.1% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 19.2% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.5% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.4% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 72.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 19.2% |
Game Analysis
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