Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -166 DEP +140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GTWN +9 | 131 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -2.3 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.7 (-11.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GTWN -2.8 (+6.2) | 137.5 (-6.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -3.0 (+6.0) | 139.6 (-8.6) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -2.2 (+6.8) | 139.5 (-8.5) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -2.2 (+6.8) | 137.7 (-6.7) | 60% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GTWN 63 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DEP 56 – 50 GTWN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | DEP 71 – 67 GTWN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DEP 83 – 77 GTWN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DEP 73 – 68 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-18 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 8-12 |
| Home | 10-7 | 11-7 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.6 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.9 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#109) | 5.1 (#103) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.78 (#99) | 1.02 (#90) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.24 (#94) | 1.39 (#85) |
| RPI | 0.517 (#136) | 0.512 (#141) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.0 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.48 | 1.30 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.1% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 14.3% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 32.5% | 29.4% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 29.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.3% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 68.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 26.0% |
Game Analysis
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