Betting Lines
| Spread | DEP -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Over |
| Money | DEP -110 GTWN -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DEP win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +6 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | GTWN -0.6 (+6.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.8 (+17.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DEP -0.3 (+5.7) | 143.2 (+16.8) | 53% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GTWN -1.6 (+7.6) | 144.4 (+15.6) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -0.4 (+6.4) | 144.7 (+15.3) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -0.0 (+6.0) | 145.4 (+14.6) | 52% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GTWN 63 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 29, 2026 | GTWN 70 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DEP 56 – 50 GTWN |
| Mar 12, 2025 | DEP 71 – 67 GTWN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DEP 73 – 68 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DEP | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-20 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 8-12 |
| Home | 11-8 | 14-5 |
| Away | 2-10 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 69.6 |
| Massey | 3.1 (#117) | 6.9 (#82) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.08 (#172) | 0.91 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.16 (#160) | 1.12 (#94) |
| RPI | 0.452 (#278) | 0.502 (#177) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DEP | GTWN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.9% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.6 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.1% | 50.7% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 27.9% | 32.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 18.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 70.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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