Betting Lines
| Spread | GTWN -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | GTWN -190 DEP +160 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GTWN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DEP +4 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | GTWN -3.5 (-7.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.1 (-4.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 68% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GTWN -3.4 (-7.4) | 143.9 (-5.9) | 64% ✗ |
| Model 4 ML ★ | GTWN -4.1 (-8.1) | 142.6 (-4.6) | 67% ✗ |
| Model 3 ML | GTWN -3.3 (-7.3) | 142.1 (-4.1) | 63% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GTWN -3.1 (-7.1) | 143.4 (-5.4) | 63% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 12, 2026 | GTWN 63 – 56 DEP |
| Jan 29, 2026 | GTWN 70 – 61 DEP |
| Jan 7, 2026 | DEP 56 – 50 GTWN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | DEP 83 – 77 GTWN |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DEP 73 – 68 GTWN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-16 | 14-20 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 4-16 |
| Home | 14-5 | 11-8 |
| Away | 3-9 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.6 | 74.5 |
| Massey | 6.8 (#83) | 3.3 (#112) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#103) | 0.04 (#162) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.00 (#103) | 0.26 (#147) |
| RPI | 0.502 (#175) | 0.455 (#275) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GTWN | DEP |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.0% | 34.3% |
| REB / G | 35.3 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.29 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.6% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 32.0% | 27.6% |
| FT Rate | 18.0% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 20.3% |
Game Analysis
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