Betting Lines
| Spread | TTU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Under |
| Money | TTU -200 ARIZ +170 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +16 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | TTU -1.1 (+14.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.9 (-31.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 61% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TTU -3.3 (+12.7) | 147.2 (-23.2) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TTU -3.1 (+12.9) | 149.8 (-25.8) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TTU -2.2 (+13.8) | 153.4 (-29.4) | 67% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TTU -3.3 (+12.7) | 149.5 (-25.5) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | TTU 78 – 75 ARIZ |
| Mar 15, 2025 | ARIZ 86 – 80 TTU |
| Feb 9, 2025 | ARIZ 82 – 73 TTU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 28-9 | 24-13 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 14-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 13-3 |
| Away | 8-2 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 5-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 82.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 73.3 |
| Massey | 17.3 (#19) | 19.9 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#51) | 2.48 (#30) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.01 (#39) | 3.35 (#28) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#59) | 0.609 (#34) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | ARIZ |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.7% | 32.6% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 40.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.1 | 12.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.65 | 1.46 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 58.2% | 54.4% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 16.6% |
| ORB% | 37.8% | 38.2% |
| FT Rate | 21.6% | 28.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.7% | 46.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.5% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 70.7% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 20.2% |
Game Analysis
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