Betting Lines
| Spread | BCU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | BCU -100000 MVSU +4000 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BCU +25 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | BCU -29.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.9 (+12.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BCU -19.6 (+5.4) | 131.4 (+9.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BCU -20.5 (+4.5) | 134.2 (+6.8) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BCU -25.3 (-0.3) | 132.1 (+8.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BCU -21.7 (+3.3) | 132.0 (+9.0) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | BCU 79 – 63 MVSU |
| Jan 21, 2024 | BCU 80 – 64 MVSU |
| Jan 14, 2023 | BCU 77 – 71 MVSU |
| Jan 15, 2022 | BCU 62 – 60 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BCU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-16 | 3-28 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 1-17 |
| Home | 8-2 | 2-9 |
| Away | 7-12 | 1-19 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L9 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 52.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 82.3 |
| Massey | -4.3 (#238) | -29.7 (#364) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.60 (#226) | -4.69 (#364) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#225) | -6.51 (#364) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#208) | 0.382 (#344) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BCU | MVSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 36.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.1% | 25.5% |
| REB / G | 33.4 | 26.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 7.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.43 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 39.9% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 25.0% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 60.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 58.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.9% | 27.7% |
Game Analysis
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