Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 134.5 Over |
| Money | USI -185 WIU +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +12 | 144 | Won |
| Massey | USI -5.0 (+7.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.5 (+7.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -3.2 (+8.8) | 134.3 (+9.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -2.2 (+9.8) | 135.7 (+8.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -3.3 (+8.7) | 135.4 (+8.6) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -3.4 (+8.6) | 134.1 (+9.9) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | USI 77 – 70 WIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | USI 96 – 64 WIU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | WIU 87 – 62 USI |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIU 82 – 76 USI |
| Jan 26, 2024 | WIU 73 – 68 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 12-19 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 6-14 |
| Home | 8-7 | 8-7 |
| Away | 2-13 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-0 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L2 | W2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.6 | 66.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.1 | 73.3 |
| Massey | -9.6 (#319) | -10.8 (#330) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.77 (#316) | -1.95 (#325) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.31 (#316) | -3.09 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.390 (#340) | 0.391 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 42.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 49.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 27.8% | 30.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.3% | 52.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.1% | 15.3% |
| DRB% | 69.2% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.6% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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