Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | USI -285 WIU +230 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USI +32 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | USI -6.6 (+25.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.2 (+24.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -4.7 (+27.3) | 137.4 (+22.6) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -4.2 (+27.8) | 130.6 (+29.4) | 66% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USI -4.2 (+27.8) | 130.3 (+29.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -4.5 (+27.5) | 133.4 (+26.6) | 66% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | USI 77 – 70 WIU |
| Feb 14, 2025 | WIU 87 – 62 USI |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USI 78 – 66 WIU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | WIU 82 – 76 USI |
| Jan 26, 2024 | WIU 73 – 68 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 7-23 | 5-26 |
| Conference | 4-16 | 1-19 |
| Home | 3-10 | 4-11 |
| Away | 4-11 | 1-15 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L5 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.0 | 63.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 78.5 |
| Massey | -11.9 (#331) | -15.3 (#351) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.93 (#354) | -3.28 (#357) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#346) | -4.31 (#357) |
| RPI | 0.359 (#360) | 0.363 (#358) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | WIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.1% | 39.3% |
| 3PT% | 29.1% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 0.62 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.4% | 43.7% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 30.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.9% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.1% | 52.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.5% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 26.8% |
Game Analysis
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