Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -1200 STAN +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | STAN +1 | 143 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -12.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.5 (-18.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 94% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -10.9 (-11.9) | 151.7 (-8.7) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -10.6 (-11.6) | 152.7 (-9.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -10.9 (-11.9) | 151.8 (-8.8) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -11.4 (-12.4) | 152.9 (-9.9) | 83% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 15, 2026 | STAN 95 – 90 UNC |
| Dec 1, 2020 | UNC 67 – 63 STAN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 11-9 |
| Home | 12-3 | 17-3 |
| Away | 6-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 73.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 14.5 (#31) | 5.6 (#90) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.49 (#28) | 1.18 (#78) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#31) | 1.21 (#93) |
| RPI | 0.633 (#19) | 0.555 (#76) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | STAN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 38.5 | 35.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.25 | 1.41 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.2% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 15.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 32.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.5% | 27.5% |
Game Analysis
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