Twenty-one years in captivity / His shoes too small to fit his feet "Nelson Mandela" - The Specials
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
81–37 on winners spread MAE 8.9 118 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Cornell @ Princeton +3.1 160.1 61% 82–89 ✓
Columbia @ Pennsylvania +16.6 144.3 93% 65–74 ✓
Saint Peter's @ Rider +9.3 127.1 80% 61–82 ✓
Fairfield @ Quinnipiac +10.0 134.2 82% 51–66 ✓
Siena @ Manhattan -5.8 141.7 30% 66–71 ✗
Mount St. Mary's @ Iona +16.8 133.6 94% 51–81 ✓
VCU @ Saint Louis +2.6 141.2 59% 73–65 ✗
Canisius @ Niagara +5.1 131.6 68% 73–76 ✓
Boise State @ San Diego State +2.9 133.6 60% 52–72 ✓
Kent State @ Akron -0.3 130.4 49% 55–67 ✗
Fresno State @ UNLV +11.4 129.6 85% 82–79 ✗
Air Force @ Nevada +11.8 131.9 86% 52–72 ✓
Virginia @ Virginia Tech -0.8 130.5 47% 68–74 ✗
Kansas @ Iowa State +2.1 132.6 58% 53–68 ✓
UConn @ Georgetown -17.3 148.7 6% 68–62 ✓
UCF @ Cincinnati +2.9 137.8 60% 64–73 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ SE Louisiana +0.0 158.5 50% 83–72 ✗
Michigan State @ Rutgers +8.7 123.1 79% 55–61 ✓
Green Bay @ IU Indianapolis +5.7 134.0 70% 53–68 ✓
Davidson @ Massachusetts +3.3 143.0 62% 93–78 ✗
Texas Tech @ Baylor +8.7 147.6 79% 62–89 ✓
Lehigh @ Lafayette +3.9 125.4 64% 66–64 ✗
Wake Forest @ Notre Dame -3.6 151.8 37% 81–64 ✓
Georgia Tech @ NC State +17.2 143.1 94% 64–72 ✓
NJIT @ UMass Lowell +13.4 141.7 89% 61–90 ✓
New Hampshire @ Bryant +7.3 148.6 75% 46–70 ✓
Delaware State @ Morgan State +7.0 138.5 74% 65–75 ✓
Ole Miss @ Vanderbilt +3.2 136.2 61% 71–74 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ The Citadel -7.5 128.5 25% 79–59 ✓
Wagner @ Fairleigh Dickinson +2.9 143.0 60% 83–79 ✗
Stonehill @ St. Francis Brooklyn -0.8 130.4 47% 65–59 ✓
Cleveland State @ Oakland -2.0 142.9 43% 89–92 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Detroit Mercy +2.4 152.4 59% 52–85 ✓
Auburn @ Tennessee +13.0 129.4 88% 43–46 ✓
Butler @ Marquette +14.4 146.5 91% 52–60 ✓
TCU @ Oklahoma State +1.4 134.4 55% 73–79 ✓
Tulane @ Memphis +9.1 164.0 80% 90–89 ✗
Evansville @ UIC +9.8 139.6 81% 61–70 ✓
Florida State @ Louisville -4.1 142.0 35% 81–78 ✓
UMBC @ Maine -0.6 148.8 48% 49–84 ✗
Navy @ Holy Cross -4.4 134.0 35% 86–68 ✓
Duquesne @ George Washington -0.0 152.7 50% 93–67 ✓
Winthrop @ Radford +9.8 138.9 81% 66–69 ✓
Presbyterian @ Gardner-Webb +13.8 124.9 90% 48–56 ✓
Campbell @ Longwood +8.3 132.5 78% 50–74 ✓
Chattanooga @ Western Carolina -1.4 149.5 45% 68–83 ✗
VMI @ Mercer +9.7 138.9 81% 54–80 ✓
Miami (OH) @ Ohio +12.2 155.2 87% 68–78 ✓
Central Connecticut @ Sacred Heart +4.1 137.0 64% 65–78 ✓
Southern Miss @ Georgia State -7.9 131.6 24% 79–71 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota +3.2 141.7 61% 86–72 ✗
UNC Wilmington @ William & Mary -5.3 130.8 32% 70–63 ✓
Charleston @ Delaware -6.0 147.6 29% 84–67 ✓
Elon @ Northeastern +6.8 137.3 73% 74–73 ✗
Drexel @ Monmouth -10.2 126.4 18% 67–69 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Stetson +13.7 158.5 89% 80–99 ✓
Chicago State @ Hartford -9.5 134.4 19% 62–49 ✓
Illinois @ Iowa +2.7 157.4 60% 79–81 ✓
George Mason @ Loyola Chicago -3.7 135.7 37% 61–69 ✗
Buffalo @ Western Michigan -3.8 156.0 37% 85–76 ✓
Miami @ Clemson +0.5 150.6 52% 78–74 ✗
Vermont @ UAlbany -8.9 135.4 21% 87–68 ✓
East Tennessee State @ Samford +8.8 140.4 79% 62–73 ✓
Saint Francis @ Merrimack +2.6 130.8 59% 66–70 ✓
South Alabama @ UL Monroe -2.7 134.0 40% 72–64 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ Arkansas State +0.4 136.5 52% 57–73 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota State +7.1 140.5 74% 85–90 ✓
Western Illinois @ Omaha +1.2 144.9 54% 75–72 ✗
Arkansas @ South Carolina -16.4 136.0 7% 65–63 ✓
Purdue @ Indiana -1.0 138.1 47% 74–79 ✗
Alabama @ LSU -15.5 147.8 8% 79–69 ✓
Texas @ Kansas State +0.4 151.6 51% 69–66 ✗
Florida Atlantic @ Charlotte -2.8 129.0 40% 67–52 ✓
SMU @ East Carolina +2.3 139.3 58% 72–77 ✓
Colgate @ American University -2.2 141.9 42% 60–61 ✗
Murray State @ Indiana State +8.0 151.3 77% 56–99 ✓
UTEP @ Western Kentucky +3.3 133.0 62% 69–74 ✓
Florida International @ UAB +16.1 157.6 93% 72–76 ✓
Norfolk State @ Hampton -10.2 146.3 18% 83–71 ✓
UNC Asheville @ South Carolina Upstate -4.1 139.7 35% 70–76 ✗
James Madison @ App State -3.5 139.4 38% 63–57 ✓
Stony Brook @ Hofstra +17.0 135.1 94% 58–79 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Bellarmine +3.8 126.6 63% 64–71 ✓
Queens University @ Austin Peay -3.9 145.6 36% 70–69 ✓
Grambling @ Alabama State -6.3 130.9 28% 73–60 ✓
Southeast Missouri State @ Tennessee Tech +0.2 154.0 51% 80–82 ✓
Morehead State @ Southern Indiana +6.0 143.6 71% 71–66 ✗
Tennessee State @ Eastern Illinois -0.3 143.9 49% 65–61 ✓
SIU Edwardsville @ Little Rock -4.7 149.7 33% 84–81 ✓
UT Martin @ Lindenwood -2.8 146.1 40% 75–80 ✗
St. John's @ Xavier +11.7 169.1 86% 71–96 ✓
Arkansas-Pine Bluff @ Alcorn State +6.5 140.4 72% 67–70 ✓
Boston University @ Loyola Maryland -1.9 129.8 43% 68–67 ✓
Illinois State @ Belmont +10.2 141.9 82% 75–90 ✓
Syracuse @ Boston College -2.5 137.7 41% 77–68 ✓
Incarnate Word @ LSU New Orleans +2.1 147.0 57% 78–70 ✗
Sam Houston @ UT Arlington -12.0 125.9 14% 58–70 ✗
Northern Illinois @ Bowling Green +4.7 148.0 67% 86–78 ✗
Idaho @ Sacramento State +7.5 139.3 75% 82–76 ✗
Liberty @ Lipscomb -7.9 132.7 24% 64–69 ✗
Jacksonville @ North Florida +0.3 136.8 51% 58–65 ✓
McNeese @ East Texas A&M +6.7 138.9 73% 58–60 ✓
UT Rio Grande Valley @ Tarleton State +8.6 152.3 78% 68–65 ✗
Columbia @ Princeton +20.2 141.1 97% 66–88 ✓
Bradley @ Northern Iowa -4.3 132.3 35% 77–69 ✓
Yale @ Dartmouth -10.9 136.7 16% 72–53 ✓
Cornell @ Pennsylvania -0.5 163.3 48% 86–92 ✗
Brown @ Harvard +5.4 128.2 69% 68–65 ✗
UTSA @ Middle Tennessee +15.1 143.7 92% 60–84 ✓
Missouri @ Mississippi State +4.4 141.7 65% 52–63 ✓
Wofford @ Furman +11.9 152.1 86% 67–80 ✓
St. Thomas @ Denver -0.5 151.6 48% 68–57 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana State +13.1 144.8 88% 62–75 ✓
Florida A&M @ Texas Southern +11.1 132.4 84% 76–69 ✗
Southern @ Alabama A&M -5.7 145.5 30% 61–82 ✗
Mississippi Valley State @ Jackson State +11.3 135.1 85% 82–78 ✗
Bethune-Cookman @ Prairie View A&M +11.6 139.3 85% 60–58 ✗
North Carolina @ Duke +5.7 144.6 70% 57–63 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.