Taking a bite on a biscuit, the record jumps on a scratch. "If I Didn't Love You" - Squeeze
← All models

Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

← Prev day Next day →
53–20 on winners spread MAE 10.3 73 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Florida Atlantic @ UAB -0.4 154.2 48% 77–86 ✗
Rice @ Louisiana Tech +5.2 154.9 68% 72–80 ✓
Florida International @ Charlotte +12.0 134.6 86% 57–54 ✗
Wisconsin @ Ohio State +9.7 134.0 81% 65–60 ✗
Michigan @ Northwestern +7.3 137.3 75% 68–51 ✗
High Point @ UNC Asheville +11.7 152.5 86% 63–89 ✓
UNC Greensboro @ Mercer -1.7 124.6 44% 69–49 ✓
VMI @ The Citadel +6.9 143.6 74% 75–69 ✗
Saint Francis @ Stonehill +3.7 146.1 63% 61–74 ✓
Wagner @ Sacred Heart +1.2 133.1 55% 56–65 ✓
Southern Miss @ Troy -0.7 137.5 47% 74–65 ✓
James Madison @ Old Dominion -2.9 141.7 39% 78–73 ✓
Georgia Southern @ Georgia State +1.9 127.6 57% 60–64 ✓
UT Martin @ SIU Edwardsville +7.1 145.1 74% 75–89 ✓
Wright State @ Youngstown State +10.0 164.5 82% 89–91 ✓
Northern Kentucky @ Robert Morris +1.8 123.2 56% 65–52 ✗
Purdue Fort Wayne @ Oakland -0.2 148.5 49% 82–73 ✓
Cleveland State @ Detroit Mercy +0.0 145.7 50% 67–85 ✓
Charleston @ Drexel -4.2 138.2 35% 69–70 ✗
North Carolina A&T @ UNC Wilmington +10.2 136.4 82% 63–87 ✓
Elon @ Stony Brook +4.2 131.4 65% 69–55 ✗
William & Mary @ Hampton -0.8 145.4 47% 57–62 ✗
Towson @ Hofstra +5.9 137.6 70% 72–76 ✓
Delaware @ Monmouth -10.2 135.6 18% 62–70 ✗
North Florida @ Jacksonville +8.3 136.8 77% 76–63 ✗
Central Arkansas @ Florida Gulf Coast +15.4 150.9 92% 91–87 ✗
North Alabama @ Stetson +8.9 154.0 79% 57–79 ✓
Coastal Carolina @ UL Monroe +3.4 142.0 62% 70–83 ✓
Tennessee Tech @ Morehead State +3.1 139.0 61% 45–64 ✓
Jacksonville State @ Eastern Kentucky +9.6 141.7 81% 67–69 ✓
Kennesaw State @ Bellarmine -3.0 131.8 39% 90–84 ✓
Stanford @ Utah +9.1 132.5 80% 78–72 ✗
Oregon State @ Arizona State +12.8 127.4 88% 57–68 ✓
UTSA @ Western Kentucky +11.6 144.3 85% 74–81 ✓
South Alabama @ Arkansas State -4.8 126.8 33% 82–62 ✓
North Dakota @ South Dakota State +10.7 135.9 83% 73–96 ✓
North Dakota State @ South Dakota -2.1 144.4 42% 62–71 ✗
St. Thomas @ Omaha -2.1 146.7 42% 89–83 ✓
Little Rock @ Southeast Missouri State +10.7 160.3 84% 98–99 ✓
Liberty @ Austin Peay -15.1 124.1 9% 82–70 ✓
Queens University @ Lipscomb +4.0 155.1 64% 60–66 ✓
Texas A&M-Corpus Christi @ LSU New Orleans -8.0 158.4 23% 86–69 ✓
Incarnate Word @ SE Louisiana +10.5 148.0 83% 67–77 ✓
Lamar @ McNeese +8.5 141.8 78% 70–63 ✗
Northwestern State @ Houston Christian -9.3 153.7 20% 94–76 ✓
Texas State @ Louisiana +9.6 138.8 81% 63–82 ✓
Tennessee State @ Southern Indiana +9.2 157.9 80% 80–76 ✗
Houston @ Wichita State -15.5 121.3 8% 70–61 ✓
Washington @ UCLA +19.3 136.9 96% 61–70 ✓
UTEP @ Middle Tennessee +6.9 128.6 73% 72–84 ✓
Utah Valley @ Utah Tech -3.1 149.4 39% 76–69 ✓
Loyola Marymount @ BYU +3.7 141.5 63% 61–89 ✓
Western Illinois @ Denver +0.9 150.9 53% 44–74 ✓
Eastern Illinois @ Lindenwood +2.8 133.2 60% 67–80 ✓
Hawai'i @ UC Davis +2.0 139.0 57% 63–75 ✓
Northern Arizona @ Montana State +13.4 138.8 89% 68–69 ✓
Northern Colorado @ Montana +8.9 146.9 79% 67–69 ✓
California @ Colorado +16.6 129.0 93% 46–59 ✓
Pepperdine @ Pacific +3.1 163.4 61% 73–81 ✓
Portland @ San Diego +2.3 166.2 58% 80–61 ✗
Cal Poly @ UC Santa Barbara +16.0 120.8 93% 62–68 ✓
Long Beach State @ Cal State Fullerton +4.9 148.2 67% 70–67 ✗
UC Riverside @ Cal State Bakersfield -5.6 126.1 31% 76–82 ✗
UC Irvine @ UC San Diego -8.3 140.0 22% 76–60 ✓
Idaho @ Portland State +7.1 156.2 74% 66–69 ✓
Eastern Washington @ Sacramento State +1.5 139.2 56% 82–63 ✗
Oregon @ Arizona +9.2 153.8 80% 76–91 ✓
Santa Clara @ Gonzaga +12.8 161.2 88% 70–88 ✓
San Francisco @ Saint Mary's +16.0 129.8 93% 59–68 ✓
Washington State @ USC +3.8 133.8 64% 70–80 ✓
Yale @ Harvard -3.1 129.4 39% 68–57 ✓
Brown @ Dartmouth -0.5 135.8 48% 73–61 ✓
Eastern Michigan @ Ball State +14.2 153.9 90% 90–91 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.