Betting Lines
| Spread | NWST -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | HCU +225 NWST -300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NWST +18 | 170 | Lost |
| Massey | NWST -9.7 (-8.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.6 (+15.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NWST -9.6 (-8.4) | 154.7 (+15.3) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NWST -7.0 (-11.0) | 157.5 (+12.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NWST -9.9 (-8.1) | 155.1 (+14.9) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NWST -8.5 (-9.5) | 156.0 (+14.0) | 18% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | NWST 71 – 53 HCU |
| Jan 20, 2026 | HCU 82 – 80 NWST |
| Mar 1, 2025 | NWST 61 – 56 HCU |
| Dec 7, 2024 | NWST 64 – 57 HCU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | NWST 86 – 73 HCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 22-11 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 13-5 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-3 |
| Away | 2-12 | 10-7 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.8 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 85.0 | 72.2 |
| Massey | -14.6 (#355) | -1.3 (#195) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.38 (#350) | 0.42 (#136) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.87 (#348) | -0.12 (#185) |
| RPI | 0.393 (#343) | 0.521 (#142) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HCU | NWST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 42.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.9% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 9.8 | 13.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 49.5% |
| TOV% | 22.1% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 28.6% | 34.7% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 16.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 58.3% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 21.3% |
| DRB% | 67.1% | 64.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.3% | 30.5% |
Game Analysis
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