Betting Lines
| Spread | UAB -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | UAB -138 FAU +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +9 | 163 | Won |
| Massey | UAB -0.3 (+8.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.7 (+9.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UAB -0.6 (+8.4) | 148.3 (+14.7) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UAB -2.2 (+6.8) | 148.0 (+15.0) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -0.3 (+9.3) | 148.1 (+14.9) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UAB -0.2 (+8.8) | 149.3 (+13.7) | 51% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | FAU 76 – 71 UAB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UAB 89 – 80 FAU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UAB 81 – 76 FAU |
| Feb 9, 2024 | UAB 76 – 73 FAU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | FAU 86 – 73 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-10 | 35-4 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 18-2 |
| Home | 17-2 | 17-0 |
| Away | 7-5 | 11-3 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 7-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.0 | 77.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.7 | 65.6 |
| Massey | 8.3 (#65) | 11.5 (#33) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.93 (#91) | 3.26 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.40 (#81) | 3.28 (#16) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#95) | 0.623 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 46.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 37.3% |
| REB / G | 41.4 | 39.0 |
| OREB / G | 14.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.7% | 54.2% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 17.3% |
| ORB% | 37.2% | 31.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.1% | 20.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.2% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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