Betting Lines
| Spread | FAU -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 157.5 Under |
| Money | UAB +188 FAU -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UAB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UAB +3 | 149 | Won |
| Massey | FAU -8.0 (+11.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.0 (-11.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 35% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 29% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FAU -5.2 (+8.2) | 152.9 (-3.9) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FAU -5.5 (+8.5) | 154.2 (-5.2) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | FAU -5.3 (+8.3) | 155.1 (-6.1) | 36% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FAU -6.8 (+9.8) | 156.2 (-7.2) | 34% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 8, 2026 | FAU 76 – 71 UAB |
| Mar 7, 2025 | UAB 89 – 80 FAU |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UAB 81 – 76 FAU |
| Jan 14, 2024 | FAU 86 – 73 UAB |
| Mar 12, 2023 | FAU 78 – 56 UAB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UAB | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-12 | 25-9 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 14-4 |
| Home | 12-5 | 13-1 |
| Away | 7-5 | 5-5 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 7-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.0 | 82.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.6 | 73.4 |
| Massey | 2.2 (#131) | 13.7 (#25) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.04 (#98) | 2.26 (#25) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.12 (#106) | 2.68 (#29) |
| RPI | 0.563 (#78) | 0.616 (#19) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UAB | FAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 36.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 38.3 |
| OREB / G | 13.0 | 11.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 56.1% |
| TOV% | 17.2% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 35.6% | 34.2% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 23.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 49.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.2% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 70.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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