Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 150.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -600 EMU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +1 | 181 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -14.1 (-13.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.5 (+26.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -10.2 (-9.2) | 151.5 (+29.5) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -10.9 (-9.9) | 152.5 (+28.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -11.3 (-10.3) | 154.0 (+27.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -10.9 (-9.9) | 152.6 (+28.4) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-2 | 6-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 2-13 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 72.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 81.3 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#147) | -9.3 (#327) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.54 (#128) | -1.67 (#317) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.51 (#134) | -2.00 (#316) |
| RPI | 0.519 (#147) | 0.412 (#326) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.9% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 34.7 | 31.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 30.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 56.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.0% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 70.6% | 68.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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