Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -10.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -600 EMU +500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +2 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -10.2 (-12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 141.8 (-27.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 82% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -8.9 (-10.9) | 141.3 (-27.3) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -8.7 (-10.7) | 140.8 (-26.8) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -9.0 (-11.0) | 142.2 (-28.2) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -8.2 (-10.2) | 143.1 (-29.1) | 77% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2023 | BALL 91 – 90 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 13-18 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 6-12 |
| Home | 9-7 | 9-6 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 65.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 73.6 |
| Massey | -5.1 (#264) | -11.9 (#334) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#268) | -1.49 (#308) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.16 (#267) | -2.00 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.447 (#280) | 0.413 (#327) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.5% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 37.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 32.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.99 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 17.0% |
| ORB% | 27.5% | 27.2% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 18.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 53.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 15.4% |
| DRB% | 73.0% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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