Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | BALL -120 EMU +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +22 | 126 | Lost |
| Massey | EMU -4.4 (-17.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.0 (-4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 13% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 8% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | EMU -4.3 (-17.7) | 134.7 (-8.7) | 32% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | EMU -3.3 (-18.7) | 133.3 (-7.3) | 31% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | EMU -4.6 (-17.4) | 131.5 (-5.5) | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | EMU -4.1 (-17.9) | 132.7 (-6.7) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2023 | BALL 91 – 90 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-19 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 4-14 |
| Home | 7-7 | 7-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-14 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | W4 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 70.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.4 | 74.4 |
| Massey | -10.2 (#315) | -1.9 (#194) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.76 (#344) | -0.21 (#194) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.34 (#339) | -0.18 (#184) |
| RPI | 0.358 (#358) | 0.475 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.0% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 36.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.7 | 10.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.11 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.6% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 29.7% |
| FT Rate | 21.9% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.4% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 66.5% | 70.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 21.7% |
Game Analysis
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