The tide is high, but I'm holding on. "The Tide is High" - Blondie
Mid-American Conference · Gervin GameAbove Center · January 17, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread EMU -1.5 Away covered
O/U 140.5 Under
Money EMU -115 / BALL -111
Model Predictions
Spread Total EMU win
Actual BALL +14 138 Lost
Massey BALL -0.8 (-13.2)
Massey Totals 139.2 (-1.2)
Bradley-Terry 70%
Weighted B-T 67%
Efficiency Plus ML BALL -1.5 (-12.5) 137.0 (+1.0) 37%
Baseline Tuned ML BALL -0.3 (-13.7) 140.1 (-2.1) 47%
Baseline ML BALL -0.1 (-13.9) 141.1 (-3.1) 43%
Baseline Plus ML BALL -0.3 (-13.7) 139.5 (-1.5) 46%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Jan 7, 2026 EMU 7452 BALL
Feb 12, 2025 BALL 8684 EMU
Feb 24, 2024 EMU 5856 BALL
Feb 25, 2023 EMU 7568 BALL
Feb 3, 2023 BALL 9190 EMU

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings EMU BALL
Overall 13-18 15-16
Conference 6-12 7-11
Home 9-6 9-7
Away 4-11 6-8
Neutral 0-1 0-1
Last 5 2-3 0-5
Streak L1 L1
Avg Pts For 65.9 72.0
Avg Pts Against 73.6 72.7
Massey -11.0 (#330) -6.3 (#279)
Bradley-Terry -1.05 (#274) -1.19 (#280)
W. Bradley-Terry -1.59 (#293) -1.52 (#287)
RPI 0.429 (#297) 0.423 (#306)
Shooting & Four Factors EMU BALL
FG% 44.8% 44.7%
3PT% 32.5% 36.5%
REB / G 31.6 33.4
OREB / G 8.1 9.3
AST / TO 0.96 0.89
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 49.9% 52.0%
TOV% 17.1% 19.8%
ORB% 24.2% 29.1%
FT Rate 20.5% 29.2%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 54.2% 52.9%
Opp TOV% 15.7% 14.5%
DRB% 69.9% 72.5%
Opp FT Rate 22.7% 21.6%

Game Analysis

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