Betting Lines
| Spread | EMU -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | EMU -115 BALL -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +14 | 138 | Lost |
| Massey | BALL -0.8 (-13.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.2 (-1.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -0.3 (-13.7) | 139.5 (-1.5) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -1.5 (-12.5) | 137.0 (+1.0) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -0.3 (-13.7) | 140.1 (-2.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -0.1 (-13.9) | 141.1 (-3.1) | 43% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2023 | BALL 91 – 90 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-18 | 15-16 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 9-7 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -11.0 (#330) | -6.3 (#279) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.05 (#274) | -1.19 (#280) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.59 (#293) | -1.52 (#287) |
| RPI | 0.429 (#297) | 0.423 (#306) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 44.7% |
| 3PT% | 32.5% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 33.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 52.0% |
| TOV% | 17.1% | 19.8% |
| ORB% | 24.2% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.5% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.2% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 14.5% |
| DRB% | 69.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.7% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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