Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -195 EMU +165 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +2 | 170 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -6.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -4.0 (-2.0) | 147.7 (+22.3) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -3.7 (-1.7) | 146.3 (+23.7) | 65% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -3.7 (-1.7) | 148.5 (+21.5) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -3.8 (-1.8) | 149.0 (+21.0) | 67% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 25, 2023 | EMU 75 – 68 BALL |
| Feb 3, 2023 | BALL 91 – 90 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 14-17 | 16-16 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 9-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 9-5 |
| Away | 4-9 | 6-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.8 | 73.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.2 | 77.1 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#259) | -9.2 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#279) | -0.66 (#230) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#292) | -1.25 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.435 (#291) | 0.469 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | EMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.8% | 33.5% |
| REB / G | 34.3 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.16 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 26.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.9% | 24.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 13.9% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.0% | 68.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 28.9% |
Game Analysis
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