Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -7.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | EMU +240 BALL -333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | EMU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | EMU +7 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -6.8 (+13.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.3 (-12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 16% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -6.2 (+13.2) | 150.9 (-7.9) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -6.8 (+13.8) | 152.5 (-9.5) | 23% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -7.1 (+14.1) | 152.9 (-9.9) | 25% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -6.6 (+13.6) | 153.4 (-10.4) | 27% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 7, 2026 | EMU 74 – 52 BALL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | BALL 86 – 84 EMU |
| Feb 24, 2024 | EMU 58 – 56 BALL |
| Jan 17, 2024 | BALL 76 – 62 EMU |
| Feb 3, 2023 | BALL 91 – 90 EMU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | EMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 11-7 |
| Home | 6-7 | 12-2 |
| Away | 2-13 | 6-7 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.1 | 75.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 81.3 | 72.7 |
| Massey | -8.9 (#318) | 1.6 (#139) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.73 (#324) | 0.57 (#121) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.04 (#324) | 0.53 (#128) |
| RPI | 0.413 (#333) | 0.525 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | EMU | BALL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.9% | 46.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 37.5% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 53.2% |
| TOV% | 16.8% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 31.6% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 30.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.6% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.4% | 71.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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