Betting Lines
| Spread | SDST -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 139.5 Over |
| Money | SDST -500 UND +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDST +23 | 169 | Won |
| Massey | SDST -10.8 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 135.6 (+33.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDST -9.7 (+13.3) | 141.8 (+27.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDST -12.2 (+10.8) | 140.9 (+28.1) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDST -9.7 (+13.3) | 140.6 (+28.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDST -9.9 (+13.1) | 142.4 (+26.6) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | SDST 91 – 83 UND |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UND 90 – 87 SDST |
| Mar 8, 2025 | UND 85 – 69 SDST |
| Feb 1, 2025 | UND 80 – 75 SDST |
| Jan 17, 2025 | SDST 109 – 73 UND |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-13 | 13-20 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 10-2 | 8-8 |
| Away | 6-9 | 4-11 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.5 | 70.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.2 | 75.1 |
| Massey | -0.9 (#187) | -8.2 (#310) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.37 (#139) | -1.63 (#316) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.02 (#174) | -1.73 (#301) |
| RPI | 0.545 (#92) | 0.405 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDST | UND |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.5% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.0% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 32.2 |
| OREB / G | 6.5 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.80 | 0.89 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.0% | 49.3% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 20.0% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 17.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.5% | 54.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 16.2% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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