Betting Lines
| Spread | UNCA -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | UNCA -450 HPU +400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNCA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNCA +26 | 152 | Won |
| Massey | UNCA -11.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 153.1 (-1.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNCA -10.4 (+15.6) | 152.4 (-0.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNCA -9.3 (+16.7) | 152.5 (-0.5) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNCA -10.1 (+15.9) | 150.7 (+1.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNCA -9.9 (+16.1) | 151.3 (+0.7) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | HPU 75 – 71 UNCA |
| Feb 20, 2026 | HPU 74 – 48 UNCA |
| Dec 31, 2025 | HPU 87 – 69 UNCA |
| Feb 9, 2025 | HPU 104 – 100 UNCA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | UNCA 103 – 99 HPU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-8 | 14-17 |
| Conference | 16-2 | 6-12 |
| Home | 13-0 | 10-5 |
| Away | 10-6 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.4 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.8 | 77.2 |
| Massey | -0.7 (#181) | -8.1 (#309) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.59 (#121) | -1.19 (#289) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.53 (#132) | -1.76 (#303) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#109) | 0.434 (#297) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNCA | HPU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.6% | 44.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.5% | 32.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.87 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.9% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 20.5% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 29.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 25.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.6% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 15.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 66.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.8% | 23.1% |
Game Analysis
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