Betting Lines
| Spread | TROY -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | TROY -125 USM +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TROY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USM +9 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | USM -0.4 (-8.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.4 (+1.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 27% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USM -0.5 (-8.5) | 137.6 (+1.4) | 46% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TROY -1.0 (-10.0) | 136.3 (+2.7) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USM -1.2 (-7.8) | 137.4 (+1.6) | 43% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USM -0.7 (-8.3) | 138.2 (+0.8) | 45% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 8, 2026 | TROY 78 – 70 USM |
| Feb 15, 2026 | USM 69 – 65 TROY |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TROY 91 – 65 USM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TROY 70 – 58 USM |
| Jan 27, 2025 | TROY 70 – 61 USM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 14-4 |
| Home | 11-3 | 15-0 |
| Away | 7-8 | 8-7 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.4 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.8 | 67.5 |
| Massey | 2.7 (#123) | 6.6 (#81) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.04 (#167) | 1.66 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.22 (#150) | 1.93 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.513 (#156) | 0.593 (#32) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TROY | USM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 31.3% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 33.0 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.26 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.3% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 29.8% | 34.0% |
| FT Rate | 22.9% | 22.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.0% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.8% | 20.7% |
| DRB% | 68.9% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.2% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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