Betting Lines
| Spread | USI -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Over |
| Money | USI -300 TNST +300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USI win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TNST +4 | 156 | Lost |
| Massey | USI -8.6 (-12.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.9 (-1.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USI -7.1 (-11.1) | 156.7 (-0.7) | 79% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USI -8.2 (-12.2) | 153.1 (+2.9) | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USI -7.6 (-11.6) | 154.7 (+1.3) | 80% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | USI -7.4 (-11.4) | 156.9 (-0.9) | 80% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 13, 2026 | TNST 73 – 71 USI |
| Jan 17, 2026 | TNST 73 – 67 USI |
| Mar 1, 2025 | TNST 74 – 69 USI |
| Dec 20, 2024 | USI 77 – 75 TNST |
| Mar 7, 2024 | TNST 78 – 64 USI |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-4 | 13-4 |
| Away | 5-11 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 75.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.8 | 75.6 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#232) | -8.4 (#314) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.46 (#223) | -1.82 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.68 (#230) | -2.38 (#331) |
| RPI | 0.482 (#210) | 0.394 (#342) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USI | TNST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 37.8% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 9.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.8% | 50.4% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 33.2% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 18.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 72.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.6% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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