Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -15.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Under |
| Money | COLO -2000 CAL +800 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +13 | 105 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -16.6 (-3.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.1 (-24.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -12.7 (+0.3) | 130.7 (-25.7) | 87% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -14.0 (-1.0) | 126.5 (-21.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -12.3 (+0.7) | 130.3 (-25.3) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -13.0 (-0.0) | 130.8 (-25.8) | 87% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLO 88 – 78 CAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CAL 82 – 78 COLO |
| Dec 31, 2022 | CAL 80 – 76 COLO |
| Feb 18, 2022 | COLO 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 12, 2021 | COLO 61 – 58 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-17 | 3-29 |
| Conference | 8-12 | 2-18 |
| Home | 13-5 | 3-14 |
| Away | 2-9 | 0-12 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L16 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 58.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.1 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#63) | -4.4 (#246) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.68 (#114) | -1.75 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.18 (#93) | -1.75 (#302) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#94) | 0.428 (#307) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 29.9% |
| REB / G | 38.0 | 31.1 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 8.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.92 | 0.75 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 46.0% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 20.6% |
| ORB% | 32.7% | 26.8% |
| FT Rate | 21.2% | 23.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.4% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.7% | 16.8% |
| DRB% | 74.4% | 70.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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