Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +450 COLO -700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +4 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -10.3 (+14.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.4 (+26.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 3% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -10.7 (+14.7) | 133.6 (+22.4) | 17% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -11.0 (+15.0) | 134.8 (+21.2) | 21% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -10.1 (+14.1) | 134.6 (+21.4) | 19% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -10.7 (+14.7) | 135.6 (+20.4) | 22% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLO 88 – 78 CAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CAL 82 – 78 COLO |
| Feb 3, 2023 | COLO 59 – 46 CAL |
| Feb 18, 2022 | COLO 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 12, 2021 | COLO 61 – 58 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 3-29 | 18-17 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 8-12 |
| Home | 3-14 | 13-5 |
| Away | 0-12 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L16 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 58.3 | 69.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 67.1 |
| Massey | -5.2 (#270) | 9.8 (#47) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.96 (#353) | 1.38 (#69) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.14 (#343) | 1.96 (#64) |
| RPI | 0.422 (#305) | 0.599 (#40) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 26.0% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 31.6 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.3 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.68 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.3% | 51.5% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 25.6% | 32.5% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 21.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 47.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.0% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.1% | 22.6% |
Game Analysis
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