Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.0 Over |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +8 | 132 | Lost |
| Massey | COLO -0.7 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -0.2 (-7.8) | 133.4 (-1.4) | 50% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -1.5 (-6.5) | 132.6 (-0.6) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -0.3 (-7.7) | 133.1 (-1.1) | 47% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -0.0 (-8.0) | 134.5 (-2.5) | 46% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLO 88 – 78 CAL |
| Jan 11, 2024 | CAL 82 – 78 COLO |
| Feb 3, 2023 | COLO 59 – 46 CAL |
| Dec 31, 2022 | CAL 80 – 76 COLO |
| Mar 12, 2021 | COLO 61 – 58 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 12-8 |
| Home | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Away | 2-9 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.1 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.1 | 67.4 |
| Massey | 2.8 (#127) | 6.4 (#87) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#150) | 1.35 (#76) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.57 (#133) | 1.64 (#81) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#201) | 0.534 (#113) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 44.2% |
| 3PT% | 32.7% | 35.9% |
| REB / G | 35.2 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 8.5 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.3% | 50.1% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.5% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 14.7% | 17.5% |
| DRB% | 76.6% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.6% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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