Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | COLO -1400 CAL +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | COLO win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | COLO +10 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -12.2 (-2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (+10.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 85% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -10.6 (-0.6) | 153.7 (+12.3) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -13.1 (-3.1) | 153.4 (+12.6) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -11.6 (-1.6) | 156.2 (+9.8) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -11.4 (-1.4) | 155.8 (+10.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2024 | CAL 82 – 78 COLO |
| Feb 3, 2023 | COLO 59 – 46 CAL |
| Dec 31, 2022 | CAL 80 – 76 COLO |
| Feb 18, 2022 | COLO 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 12, 2021 | COLO 61 – 58 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | COLO | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 9-11 |
| Home | 16-1 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-7 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 0-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 77.0 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#27) | 4.0 (#114) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.64 (#55) | 0.50 (#126) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.16 (#50) | 0.97 (#112) |
| RPI | 0.576 (#52) | 0.499 (#175) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | COLO | CAL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.6% | 42.7% |
| 3PT% | 39.4% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.1 | 10.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.07 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.5% | 49.9% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 16.0% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 29.2% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.8% | 50.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 14.4% |
| DRB% | 76.0% | 74.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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