Betting Lines
| Spread | COLO -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 149.5 Over |
| Money | CAL +178 COLO -215 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CAL +4 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | COLO -6.6 (+10.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.9 (+3.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 11% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | COLO -6.6 (+10.6) | 151.4 (+8.6) | 26% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | COLO -6.1 (+10.1) | 149.0 (+11.0) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | COLO -6.7 (+10.7) | 151.1 (+8.9) | 28% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | COLO -6.1 (+10.1) | 151.3 (+8.7) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 29, 2024 | COLO 88 – 78 CAL |
| Feb 3, 2023 | COLO 59 – 46 CAL |
| Dec 31, 2022 | CAL 80 – 76 COLO |
| Feb 18, 2022 | COLO 70 – 62 CAL |
| Mar 12, 2021 | COLO 61 – 58 CAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-19 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 13-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-1 |
| Away | 3-8 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.0 | 79.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.0 | 71.7 |
| Massey | 0.5 (#161) | 11.2 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.80 (#249) | 1.80 (#52) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.49 (#214) | 2.50 (#44) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#222) | 0.601 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CAL | COLO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 50.6% |
| 3PT% | 33.8% | 39.5% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 37.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.7 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.93 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.5% | 56.5% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.9% |
| ORB% | 32.2% | 33.5% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 28.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.0% | 49.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.8% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 76.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.1% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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