Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | ARST +160 USA -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +20 | 144 | Lost |
| Massey | USA -4.7 (-15.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 47% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -4.0 (-16.0) | 133.9 (+10.1) | 31% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -5.1 (-14.9) | 131.7 (+12.3) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -4.5 (-15.5) | 133.8 (+10.2) | 32% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -4.7 (-15.3) | 134.3 (+9.7) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | USA 92 – 88 ARST |
| Jan 16, 2026 | USA 91 – 87 ARST |
| Mar 9, 2025 | ARST 74 – 71 USA |
| Feb 20, 2025 | USA 60 – 56 ARST |
| Jan 10, 2025 | USA 76 – 62 ARST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 19-16 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-8 | 10-4 |
| Away | 2-11 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.5 | 65.8 |
| Massey | -8.1 (#308) | 0.2 (#166) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.48 (#303) | -0.72 (#250) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#312) | -0.76 (#235) |
| RPI | 0.410 (#330) | 0.478 (#221) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARST | USA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.1% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 33.1% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 31.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 7.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.96 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.6% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.7% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 29.9% | 21.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.3% | 13.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.6% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.3% | 20.5% |
Game Analysis
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