Betting Lines
| Spread | MTST -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Under |
| Money | MTST -800 NAU +650 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MTST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MTST +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MTST -13.3 (-12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.1 (-2.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MTST -10.8 (-9.8) | 141.4 (-4.4) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MTST -12.5 (-11.5) | 138.8 (-1.8) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MTST -11.0 (-10.0) | 139.5 (-2.5) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MTST -11.3 (-10.3) | 140.4 (-3.4) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 3, 2026 | MTST 76 – 65 NAU |
| Jan 4, 2026 | MTST 77 – 68 NAU |
| Feb 7, 2025 | NAU 69 – 64 MTST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | MTST 58 – 53 NAU |
| Feb 10, 2024 | NAU 76 – 71 MTST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 12-23 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 5-13 |
| Home | 12-1 | 6-8 |
| Away | 10-5 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 72.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.2 | 76.2 |
| Massey | 3.9 (#108) | -5.8 (#272) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.63 (#119) | -1.41 (#299) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.82 (#116) | -1.67 (#297) |
| RPI | 0.535 (#107) | 0.420 (#321) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MTST | NAU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.8% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 32.4 | 33.1 |
| OREB / G | 8.0 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.97 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.3% | 47.8% |
| TOV% | 18.5% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 25.3% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 55.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 17.6% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 31.6% |
Game Analysis
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