Betting Lines
| Spread | GAST -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | GAST -150 GASO +150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GAST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GAST +4 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | GAST -1.8 (+2.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 49% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GASO -0.5 (+4.5) | 134.1 (-10.1) | 46% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GAST -1.4 (+2.6) | 133.1 (-9.1) | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GAST -0.5 (+3.5) | 133.5 (-9.5) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GAST -0.1 (+3.9) | 135.0 (-11.0) | 49% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 20, 2026 | GAST 66 – 64 GASO |
| Dec 19, 2025 | GASO 90 – 67 GAST |
| Mar 6, 2025 | GAST 80 – 71 GASO |
| Mar 1, 2025 | GASO 76 – 75 GAST |
| Jan 9, 2025 | GAST 82 – 78 GASO |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-21 | 17-16 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 9-9 |
| Home | 10-9 | 12-4 |
| Away | 0-11 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L8 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.1 | 67.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 68.3 |
| Massey | -4.7 (#251) | -2.9 (#228) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#278) | -0.37 (#212) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.14 (#267) | -0.56 (#218) |
| RPI | 0.439 (#294) | 0.485 (#199) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GAST | GASO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.2% | 43.8% |
| 3PT% | 28.2% | 30.1% |
| REB / G | 33.5 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.88 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 44.7% | 48.8% |
| TOV% | 20.6% | 15.7% |
| ORB% | 31.5% | 26.5% |
| FT Rate | 23.6% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 22.9% |
Game Analysis
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