Betting Lines
| Spread | UL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | UL -500 TXST +333 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UL +19 | 145 | Won |
| Massey | UL -9.3 (+9.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UL -8.6 (+10.4) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 80% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UL -7.2 (+11.8) | 136.3 (+8.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UL -8.6 (+10.4) | 140.1 (+4.9) | 82% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UL -8.4 (+10.6) | 139.0 (+6.0) | 81% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UL 67 – 54 TXST |
| Jan 15, 2026 | TXST 59 – 54 UL |
| Jan 31, 2025 | UL 70 – 61 TXST |
| Jan 23, 2025 | TXST 89 – 74 UL |
| Jan 28, 2024 | UL 66 – 46 TXST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 16-19 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-0 | 4-10 |
| Away | 7-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 5-1 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.9 | 65.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.1 | 66.8 |
| Massey | 4.2 (#105) | -1.6 (#209) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.47 (#65) | -0.25 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.93 (#61) | -0.38 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.579 (#50) | 0.487 (#191) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UL | TXST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 42.4% |
| 3PT% | 38.2% | 30.5% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 32.5 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.19 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.8% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 33.5% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 50.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 73.2% | 72.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.5% | 29.0% |
Game Analysis
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