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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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31–15 on winners spread MAE 8.7 46 games
Matchup Spread Total Home win Result Pick
Tennessee @ Florida -8.9 127.2 21% 54–67 ✗
Georgia @ Auburn +11.5 134.3 85% 73–94 ✓
Tulsa @ Cincinnati +17.5 146.8 94% 55–81 ✓
East Carolina @ South Florida +8.3 141.6 77% 63–71 ✓
Holy Cross @ Boston University +8.9 131.8 79% 82–70 ✗
Army @ Lehigh +1.3 147.1 55% 71–69 ✗
Bucknell @ American University +9.3 133.0 80% 78–71 ✗
Pittsburgh @ North Carolina +7.5 149.8 75% 65–64 ✗
Georgia Tech @ Louisville -3.5 133.4 37% 58–68 ✗
New Hampshire @ NJIT -0.1 129.2 50% 74–67 ✓
Maine @ Bryant +7.6 159.9 76% 53–71 ✓
Binghamton @ UMBC +10.5 148.7 83% 55–69 ✓
Navy @ Lafayette +1.8 125.0 57% 53–34 ✗
St. Bonaventure @ Richmond +5.0 126.7 68% 66–62 ✗
Rhode Island @ Saint Joseph's +5.0 143.7 68% 50–64 ✓
Massachusetts @ George Mason +4.8 141.5 67% 59–70 ✓
George Washington @ La Salle -1.4 152.0 45% 64–75 ✗
Radford @ Presbyterian -8.4 127.9 22% 67–59 ✓
Longwood @ Winthrop -2.6 140.6 41% 74–76 ✗
Gardner-Webb @ Charleston Southern -1.6 139.1 44% 67–59 ✓
South Carolina Upstate @ Campbell +5.6 132.9 69% 66–78 ✓
Samford @ Western Carolina -3.2 146.7 39% 85–77 ✓
Chattanooga @ Furman +7.9 158.7 77% 58–79 ✓
Wofford @ East Tennessee State +0.8 137.8 53% 52–77 ✓
Sam Houston @ UT Rio Grande Valley -13.2 146.5 12% 67–65 ✓
Valparaiso @ Missouri State +11.7 130.0 86% 67–76 ✓
UIC @ Illinois State +5.8 136.9 70% 62–68 ✓
Belmont @ Murray State +0.8 147.8 53% 82–83 ✓
Southern Illinois @ Bradley +7.0 121.7 74% 52–62 ✓
Indiana State @ Evansville -13.2 148.0 12% 83–65 ✓
Villanova @ Marquette +12.0 149.3 86% 64–73 ✓
Seton Hall @ St. John's -0.3 142.0 49% 84–72 ✓
Minnesota @ Rutgers +19.0 119.6 96% 55–90 ✓
Oklahoma State @ Oklahoma +2.2 127.9 58% 71–61 ✗
SMU @ Tulane +10.8 157.0 84% 52–74 ✓
Northern Iowa @ Drake +10.3 133.6 83% 81–88 ✓
Florida State @ NC State +14.5 151.8 91% 66–94 ✓
LSU @ Missouri +11.5 151.0 85% 77–87 ✓
Stephen F. Austin @ New Mexico State -0.1 148.6 50% 67–73 ✗
Southern Utah @ California Baptist +0.9 145.6 53% 72–71 ✗
Abilene Christian @ Seattle U +11.0 141.2 84% 83–68 ✗
New Mexico @ Utah State +3.7 162.7 63% 73–84 ✓
Milwaukee @ IU Indianapolis -13.5 146.9 11% 72–69 ✓
Central Connecticut @ St. Francis Brooklyn -0.8 127.8 47% 48–53 ✗
Long Island University @ Merrimack +12.3 127.4 87% 59–76 ✓
Marshall @ App State -4.9 144.4 33% 66–58 ✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.