Betting Lines
| Spread | MIZ -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | MIZ -500 LSU +350 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIZ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIZ +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | MIZ -11.5 (-1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 151.7 (+12.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 93% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIZ -12.0 (-2.0) | 148.2 (+15.8) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIZ -9.1 (+0.9) | 147.9 (+16.1) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIZ -10.3 (-0.3) | 148.3 (+15.7) | 84% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIZ -10.7 (-0.7) | 149.8 (+14.2) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | LSU 78 – 70 MIZ |
| Jan 8, 2025 | MIZ 83 – 67 LSU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | LSU 84 – 80 MIZ |
| Mar 2, 2023 | MIZ 81 – 76 LSU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | LSU 76 – 68 MIZ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIZ | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-10 | 14-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 2-16 |
| Home | 16-3 | 10-8 |
| Away | 5-5 | 0-9 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 78.9 | 67.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.4 | 70.7 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#52) | 1.9 (#131) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.26 (#25) | 0.89 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.62 (#33) | 0.85 (#116) |
| RPI | 0.589 (#35) | 0.526 (#133) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIZ | LSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.2% | 41.9% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 31.2 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.46 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.7% | 48.1% |
| TOV% | 16.0% | 19.3% |
| ORB% | 28.0% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 23.8% | 22.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.1% | 49.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 25.3% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 62.2% | 69.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.6% | 19.3% |
Game Analysis
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