Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | WIN +150 LONG -150 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | WIN win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | WIN +2 | 150 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -2.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -2.0 (+4.0) | 137.9 (+12.1) | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -2.6 (+4.6) | 135.5 (+14.5) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -1.3 (+3.3) | 138.9 (+11.1) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -1.7 (+3.7) | 139.6 (+10.4) | 45% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | WIN 79 – 74 LONG |
| Dec 31, 2025 | LONG 82 – 70 WIN |
| Mar 8, 2025 | WIN 88 – 79 LONG |
| Feb 28, 2025 | WIN 85 – 59 LONG |
| Jan 11, 2025 | WIN 95 – 76 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 10-4 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-11 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.8 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#262) | 0.8 (#156) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.98 (#273) | -0.23 (#198) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.20 (#271) | -0.34 (#201) |
| RPI | 0.457 (#260) | 0.490 (#194) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | WIN | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 43.7% |
| 3PT% | 37.2% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.81 | 0.95 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 21.8% | 18.7% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 29.4% | 25.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.6% | 50.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 21.9% |
| DRB% | 63.9% | 72.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.4% | 24.1% |
Game Analysis
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