Betting Lines
| Spread | USU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | USU -200 UNM +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USU +11 | 157 | Won |
| Massey | USU -3.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 162.2 (-5.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 53% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USU -3.1 (+7.9) | 158.8 (-1.8) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USU -3.9 (+7.1) | 155.9 (+1.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USU -2.5 (+8.5) | 158.3 (-1.3) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USU -2.5 (+8.5) | 158.6 (-1.6) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 7, 2026 | USU 94 – 90 UNM |
| Feb 5, 2026 | USU 86 – 66 UNM |
| Feb 16, 2025 | UNM 82 – 79 USU |
| Feb 2, 2025 | UNM 82 – 63 USU |
| Mar 10, 2024 | USU 87 – 85 UNM |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-2 | 15-5 |
| Away | 7-4 | 5-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.4 | 80.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.9 | 74.6 |
| Massey | 10.8 (#38) | 11.2 (#37) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.02 (#36) | 2.54 (#18) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.63 (#32) | 3.11 (#19) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#18) | 0.613 (#22) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USU | UNM |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 48.0% | 48.8% |
| 3PT% | 40.7% | 35.5% |
| REB / G | 35.9 | 38.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.6 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.16 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.4% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 17.6% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 27.6% | 28.7% |
| FT Rate | 26.6% | 29.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.6% | 18.1% |
| DRB% | 76.2% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.1% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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