Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -0.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | MUR -115 BEL -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +1 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | MUR -1.1 (-0.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.0 (+17.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 51% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -0.7 (+0.3) | 147.4 (+17.6) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -1.5 (-0.5) | 146.9 (+18.1) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -0.7 (+0.3) | 146.6 (+18.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -0.3 (+0.7) | 148.2 (+16.8) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 15, 2026 | BEL 87 – 70 MUR |
| Feb 1, 2026 | BEL 103 – 86 MUR |
| Mar 2, 2025 | BEL 70 – 60 MUR |
| Jan 25, 2025 | BEL 95 – 77 MUR |
| Feb 29, 2024 | BEL 83 – 61 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 17-15 | 21-11 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 14-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-2 |
| Away | 3-11 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 76.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.6 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -0.5 (#175) | 2.0 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.18 (#157) | 0.78 (#105) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.15 (#158) | 0.58 (#131) |
| RPI | 0.510 (#158) | 0.556 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | BEL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 29.5% | 39.4% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 31.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 17.0% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 25.8% | 17.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 68.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 20.0% |
Game Analysis
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