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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
24–6 on winners
spread MAE 9.3
30 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Clemson
@
Boston College
|
-6.1 | 137.4 | 29% | 54–62 | ✗ |
Virginia Tech
@
Miami
|
+3.6 | 148.6 | 63% | 83–92 | ✓ |
Wake Forest
@
Duke
|
+10.3 | 146.6 | 82% | 73–75 | ✓ |
Marist
@
Quinnipiac
|
+15.3 | 133.1 | 92% | 66–72 | ✓ |
Nebraska
@
Illinois
|
+12.4 | 134.8 | 87% | 56–72 | ✓ |
Texas A&M
@
Arkansas
|
+5.9 | 140.0 | 71% | 70–81 | ✓ |
VCU
@
Davidson
|
-2.0 | 135.4 | 43% | 61–59 | ✓ |
Saint Louis
@
Fordham
|
-1.2 | 147.9 | 46% | 65–75 | ✗ |
Ohio
@
Eastern Michigan
|
-8.4 | 158.8 | 22% | 79–90 | ✗ |
Central Michigan
@
Kent State
|
+21.1 | 131.5 | 97% | 69–81 | ✓ |
Toledo
@
Miami (OH)
|
-9.2 | 168.1 | 20% | 81–78 | ✓ |
Ball State
@
Bowling Green
|
-1.6 | 151.1 | 44% | 69–60 | ✓ |
Akron
@
Buffalo
|
+0.3 | 145.7 | 51% | 81–64 | ✗ |
Northern Illinois
@
Western Michigan
|
+3.0 | 146.4 | 61% | 73–59 | ✗ |
Kansas State
@
Kansas
|
+6.1 | 148.4 | 71% | 78–90 | ✓ |
UConn
@
DePaul
|
-14.0 | 147.6 | 10% | 90–76 | ✓ |
Vanderbilt
@
Alabama
|
+17.6 | 156.2 | 94% | 44–101 | ✓ |
West Virginia
@
TCU
|
+4.6 | 146.9 | 66% | 72–76 | ✓ |
Indiana
@
Maryland
|
+1.2 | 139.7 | 54% | 55–66 | ✓ |
Northwestern
@
Iowa
|
+4.2 | 148.5 | 65% | 70–86 | ✓ |
Kentucky
@
Ole Miss
|
-3.0 | 135.7 | 39% | 75–66 | ✓ |
Loyola Chicago
@
Dayton
|
+16.7 | 126.2 | 94% | 81–85 | ✓ |
UNLV
@
Colorado State
|
+0.8 | 148.2 | 53% | 83–71 | ✗ |
Boise State
@
Air Force
|
-7.8 | 128.1 | 24% | 59–52 | ✓ |
Fresno State
@
Wyoming
|
+2.6 | 126.1 | 59% | 62–85 | ✓ |
San Diego State
@
Nevada
|
+0.7 | 139.1 | 52% | 66–75 | ✓ |
UAlbany
@
UMass Lowell
|
+15.7 | 146.4 | 92% | 50–66 | ✓ |
Penn State
@
Purdue
|
+10.0 | 135.5 | 82% | 60–80 | ✓ |
Providence
@
Xavier
|
+4.3 | 160.9 | 65% | 83–85 | ✓ |
Creighton
@
Georgetown
|
-14.8 | 150.8 | 9% | 63–53 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.