Betting Lines
| Spread | ARK -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | ARK -175 TA&M +138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ARK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ARK +11 | 151 | Won |
| Massey | ARK -6.5 (+4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ARK -5.1 (+5.9) | 140.7 (+10.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ARK -4.9 (+6.1) | 138.1 (+12.9) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ARK -5.2 (+5.8) | 140.9 (+10.1) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ARK -5.3 (+5.7) | 140.0 (+11.0) | 73% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | ARK 99 – 84 TA&M |
| Feb 15, 2025 | TA&M 69 – 61 ARK |
| Feb 21, 2024 | ARK 78 – 71 TA&M |
| Jan 17, 2024 | ARK 78 – 77 TA&M |
| Mar 11, 2023 | TA&M 67 – 61 ARK |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 25-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 15-3 |
| Home | 14-3 | 15-1 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 3-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 72.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.9 | 66.5 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#23) | 10.1 (#44) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.83 (#46) | 1.63 (#56) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.32 (#46) | 1.91 (#60) |
| RPI | 0.605 (#25) | 0.573 (#56) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ARK | TA&M |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 36.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.06 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.6% | 50.8% |
| TOV% | 18.7% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 31.2% | 36.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.4% | 33.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.9% | 21.4% |
| DRB% | 74.6% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.0% | 27.0% |
Game Analysis
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