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Adjusted Efficiency (classic) — Schedule
Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.
8–8 on winners
spread MAE 8.0
16 games
| Matchup | Spread | Total | Home win | Result | Pick |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Virginia
@
Syracuse
|
-4.9 | 132.5 | 33% | 67–62 | ✓ |
Chicago State
@
The Citadel
|
+1.1 | 138.5 | 54% | 76–75 | ✗ |
Loyola Maryland
@
Colgate
|
+17.8 | 140.7 | 95% | 63–76 | ✓ |
North Carolina Central
@
Norfolk State
|
+2.8 | 142.4 | 60% | 71–77 | ✓ |
South Carolina State
@
Howard
|
+11.2 | 157.0 | 85% | 74–100 | ✓ |
Maryland Eastern Shore
@
Morgan State
|
+3.6 | 138.7 | 63% | 72–58 | ✗ |
Alabama A&M
@
Bethune-Cookman
|
-0.1 | 143.6 | 50% | 77–88 | ✗ |
Delaware State
@
Coppin State
|
+7.5 | 155.8 | 75% | 71–66 | ✗ |
South Dakota State
@
Kansas City
|
+0.7 | 126.6 | 52% | 67–66 | ✗ |
South Dakota
@
Oral Roberts
|
+21.3 | 152.6 | 97% | 53–103 | ✓ |
Alcorn State
@
Grambling
|
+8.2 | 137.1 | 77% | 63–60 | ✗ |
Baylor
@
Texas
|
+5.7 | 153.4 | 70% | 71–76 | ✓ |
Iowa State
@
Texas Tech
|
-2.0 | 127.1 | 43% | 77–80 | ✗ |
Jackson State
@
Southern
|
+11.3 | 146.8 | 85% | 62–73 | ✓ |
Alabama State
@
Florida A&M
|
-0.9 | 126.0 | 47% | 58–69 | ✗ |
Mississippi State
@
South Carolina
|
-12.0 | 122.4 | 14% | 66–51 | ✓ |
Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.