Betting Lines
| Spread | CIT -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | CIT -154 CHST +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | CIT win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CHST +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | CIT -0.7 (-1.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.3 (+12.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIT -1.8 (-2.8) | 138.6 (+12.4) | 51% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIT -1.6 (-2.6) | 138.4 (+12.6) | 54% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIT -1.8 (-2.8) | 137.6 (+13.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIT -1.4 (-2.4) | 139.1 (+11.9) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | CIT | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 11-20 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 0-0 |
| Home | 5-9 | 8-0 |
| Away | 4-11 | 3-20 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L4 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 66.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.5 | 74.3 |
| Massey | -8.5 (#317) | -5.7 (#269) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.22 (#290) | -1.43 (#302) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.56 (#290) | -1.64 (#293) |
| RPI | 0.444 (#284) | 0.430 (#302) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | CIT | CHST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 40.9% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 33.8 |
| OREB / G | 6.8 | 11.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.7% |
| TOV% | 17.7% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 19.9% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 23.0% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.8% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 16.5% |
| DRB% | 69.0% | 65.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 27.1% |
Game Analysis
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