Betting Lines
| Spread | UMES -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | MORG +120 UMES -120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MORG win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UMES +14 | 130 | Lost |
| Massey | MORG -2.8 (-16.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.0 (-9.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 46% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MORG -0.4 (-14.4) | 142.5 (-12.5) | 54% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MORG -2.0 (-16.0) | 141.8 (-11.8) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MORG -0.7 (-14.7) | 142.4 (-12.4) | 55% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MORG -0.9 (-14.9) | 143.6 (-13.6) | 53% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | MORG 79 – 71 UMES |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UMES 66 – 49 MORG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | MORG 75 – 72 UMES |
| Feb 1, 2025 | MORG 76 – 63 UMES |
| Feb 17, 2024 | MORG 70 – 65 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-16 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 7-7 | 9-5 |
| Home | 10-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.9 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -5.7 (#271) | -5.0 (#255) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.48 (#226) | 0.33 (#140) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.86 (#248) | 0.06 (#168) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#186) | 0.528 (#128) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MORG | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.7% | 41.3% |
| 3PT% | 38.8% | 34.0% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 29.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 9.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.9% | 47.9% |
| TOV% | 22.6% | 20.8% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 27.0% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 19.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.2% | 52.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.8% | 23.9% |
| DRB% | 61.8% | 67.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.5% | 26.6% |
Game Analysis
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