Betting Lines
| Spread | NORF -5.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Over |
| Money | NORF -250 NCCU +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | NORF win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | NORF +6 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | NORF -3.2 (+2.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.2 (+5.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | NORF -3.6 (+2.4) | 140.7 (+7.3) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | NORF -4.7 (+1.3) | 139.6 (+8.4) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | NORF -3.4 (+2.6) | 142.9 (+5.1) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | NORF -3.1 (+2.9) | 143.6 (+4.4) | 68% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | NORF 75 – 68 NCCU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | NCCU 69 – 67 NORF |
| Mar 4, 2025 | NCCU 91 – 87 NORF |
| Feb 4, 2025 | NORF 81 – 78 NCCU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | NORF 80 – 74 NCCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 18-12 |
| Conference | 9-5 | 10-4 |
| Home | 10-2 | 13-1 |
| Away | 6-8 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 6-1 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 71.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 67.9 |
| Massey | -1.7 (#209) | -1.4 (#202) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.30 (#145) | -0.65 (#241) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.31 (#145) | -0.53 (#215) |
| RPI | 0.514 (#154) | 0.466 (#247) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | NORF | NCCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.6% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 32.6% | 36.2% |
| REB / G | 34.2 | 33.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.4% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 31.9% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.5% | 22.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.5% | 52.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 20.8% |
| DRB% | 68.5% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 21.4% |
Game Analysis
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