Betting Lines
| Spread | XAV -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 153.5 Over |
| Money | XAV -188 PROV +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | XAV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | XAV +2 | 168 | Won |
| Massey | XAV -4.5 (-2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 160.7 (+7.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 70% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | XAV -3.6 (-1.6) | 157.3 (+10.7) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | XAV -2.4 (-0.4) | 153.7 (+14.3) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | XAV -3.4 (-1.4) | 156.3 (+11.7) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | XAV -3.8 (-1.8) | 157.6 (+10.4) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | PROV 94 – 84 XAV |
| Jan 10, 2026 | XAV 97 – 84 PROV |
| Mar 8, 2025 | XAV 76 – 68 PROV |
| Feb 13, 2025 | XAV 91 – 82 PROV |
| Feb 22, 2024 | PROV 79 – 75 XAV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 27-10 | 21-12 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 13-7 |
| Home | 15-2 | 15-2 |
| Away | 7-4 | 6-6 |
| Neutral | 5-4 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L4 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.9 | 77.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.1 | 71.0 |
| Massey | 12.9 (#25) | 11.9 (#30) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.50 (#19) | 2.31 (#24) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.35 (#13) | 3.00 (#21) |
| RPI | 0.621 (#16) | 0.588 (#43) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | XAV | PROV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 50.2% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 33.9% |
| REB / G | 37.6 | 39.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 12.4 |
| AST / TO | 1.57 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.0% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 17.9% | 18.4% |
| ORB% | 31.3% | 37.3% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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