Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | MIA -188 VT +145 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +9 | 175 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -3.9 (+5.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+26.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 80% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -4.3 (+4.7) | 147.9 (+27.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MIA -4.4 (+4.6) | 145.5 (+29.5) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -4.2 (+4.8) | 148.5 (+26.5) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -4.2 (+4.8) | 149.1 (+25.9) | 72% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 18, 2026 | MIA 67 – 66 VT |
| Feb 22, 2025 | VT 81 – 68 MIA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | VT 86 – 85 MIA |
| Feb 3, 2024 | MIA 82 – 74 VT |
| Jan 14, 2024 | MIA 75 – 71 VT |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 19-15 |
| Conference | 15-5 | 8-12 |
| Home | 16-1 | 13-4 |
| Away | 7-4 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 6-3 | 4-1 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.9 | 70.1 |
| Massey | 9.8 (#51) | 9.5 (#58) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.21 (#30) | 1.48 (#62) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#30) | 1.99 (#56) |
| RPI | 0.600 (#27) | 0.578 (#50) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | VT |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.6% | 35.1% |
| REB / G | 35.0 | 35.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 1.28 | 1.47 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.3% | 53.6% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 15.5% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 22.8% | 17.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.5% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 67.9% | 73.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.8% | 18.0% |
Game Analysis
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