Betting Lines
| Spread | DAY -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | DAY -1400 LUC +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | DAY win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | DAY +4 | 166 | Won |
| Massey | DAY -17.6 (-13.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.7 (+39.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 96% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | DAY -14.3 (-10.3) | 133.6 (+32.4) | 88% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | DAY -13.0 (-9.0) | 131.0 (+35.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | DAY -13.4 (-9.4) | 133.4 (+32.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | DAY -13.2 (-9.2) | 134.2 (+31.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 17, 2026 | DAY 78 – 51 LUC |
| Jan 3, 2026 | DAY 70 – 68 LUC |
| Feb 22, 2025 | LUC 76 – 72 DAY |
| Jan 18, 2025 | DAY 83 – 81 LUC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | LUC 77 – 72 DAY |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | DAY | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-12 | 10-21 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-2 | 6-8 |
| Away | 5-6 | 3-8 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.6 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 72.5 |
| Massey | 8.0 (#68) | -6.1 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.72 (#108) | -0.95 (#269) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.29 (#86) | -1.08 (#260) |
| RPI | 0.542 (#95) | 0.446 (#280) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | DAY | LUC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.9% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 33.4% |
| REB / G | 37.2 | 31.4 |
| OREB / G | 9.4 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.12 | 0.83 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 20.4% | 24.0% |
| ORB% | 30.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 20.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 43.9% | 51.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 18.3% |
| DRB% | 73.8% | 71.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 15.3% | 28.5% |
Game Analysis
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