Betting Lines
| Spread | TOL -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | M-OH +450 TOL -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | M-OH win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TOL +3 | 159 | Lost |
| Massey | TOL -9.7 (+6.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.4 (-8.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TOL -8.8 (+5.8) | 157.9 (+1.1) | 18% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TOL -9.4 (+6.4) | 158.7 (+0.3) | 19% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TOL -8.8 (+5.8) | 160.0 (-1.0) | 18% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | TOL -8.8 (+5.8) | 159.6 (-0.6) | 20% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 4, 2026 | M-OH 74 – 72 TOL |
| Jan 9, 2026 | M-OH 87 – 73 TOL |
| Feb 12, 2025 | M-OH 92 – 80 TOL |
| Mar 6, 2024 | TOL 97 – 63 M-OH |
| Jan 6, 2024 | TOL 68 – 64 M-OH |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 27-8 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 16-2 |
| Home | 9-9 | 13-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 10-4 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 4-3 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 84.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 76.6 |
| Massey | -8.7 (#317) | 4.6 (#102) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.12 (#340) | 0.75 (#106) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.47 (#335) | 0.87 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.399 (#338) | 0.542 (#97) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | M-OH | TOL |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.0% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 38.2% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 9.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.45 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 55.1% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.2% | 30.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.9% | 24.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.5% | 52.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 67.3% | 69.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.9% | 21.5% |
Game Analysis
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